In this case, according to the odds calculator in the Alpha version of PokerTracker 4, Hero has 49.596% equity on the flop, which is the player’s all-in equity. Hero wins with two pair, aces and deuces, king kicker. Both blinds fold, and the cutoff calls.įlop ($45): 3♠ 2♠ 2 ♥. Hero ($200) reraises to $22 on the button holding A♠ K♠. Preflop ($3): The cutoff ($200) opens with a raise to $7 holding J ♦ J ♥. Let’s say it’s a $1-$2 no-limit hold’em game online with $200 stacks. What the stat does is take situations in which Hero is all in and adjusts the amount won accordingly, based on Hero’s equity at the point Hero went all in. The first thing that is important to realize is that the All-In EV stat is not calculated every hand. We’ll discuss those problems in a minute, but first let’s talk about how the stat is supposed to work.
One is problems accounting for All-In EV in multi-way pots, and the other is trying to account for “EV” (results-oriented win) on online poker sites where the opponent’s holecards are only revealed at showdown if Hero loses, but not if Hero wins. There are two primary reasons why the stat doesn’t work for anything but heads-up play. However, unless you only play heads-up poker, a player’s expected win (the All-In EV stat) and actual amount won lines essentially can’t ever actually be expected to converge, regardless of the software you are using. The stat is perfectly accurate for heads-up players. (Technically speaking, the term “results-adjusted win” would be more accurate!) Consequently, my sources tell me that the stat will be renamed “All-In Equity” in the upcoming PokerTracker 4. The All-In EV stat, on the other hand, is results oriented, adjusting results based on actual hands shown. EV stands for expected value, and as such is a forward-looking concept. It should be obvious given some thought, but EV by definition is forward-looking. There are a couple of problems with the All-In EV stat in either form: Take it away Jeff!ĭue to popular demand from online poker players, Hold’em Manager and PokerTracker 3 both include versions of a controversial and poorly understood statistic in their poker-tracking software called “All-In EV.” The idea behind this stat is to enable the user to determine whether he is running above, below, or around expectation. We hope that this article will be helpful in eliminating the common misconceptions about the All-In EV stat which is found in PokerTracker 3, and in turn encourage discussion of this stat's new name in PokerTracker 4 - All In Equity.
With Jeff's permission, we have reprinted his essay which originally was published in Cardplayer Magazine on September 12, 2011. Recently noted Pot Limit Omaha authority and noted CardPlayer Magazine columnist Jeff Hwang wrote an excellent essay on the topic of All-In EV.
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